Fort Collins Renewable Electricity at 37%, Far Behind 2026 and 2030 Goals

Fort Collins remains at 37% renewable electricity as of 2024, with projections showing the city will fall significantly short of its 100% consumption-based renewable electricity goal by 2030, according to a Fort Collins City Council work session October 28.

Brian Thal, energy services director, told council that while Platte River Power Authority forecasts reaching 88% renewable generation by 2030, the gap between utility-scale supply and the city's consumption-based target raises questions about whether the ambitious goal adopted in 2018 remains achievable.

"I want to pause because I often get an eyebrow raised or a question there," Thal said. "We are still on progress in forecasting to achieve the 100% renewable consumption based goal by 2030."

The city's 2026 interim goal of 50% emissions reduction carries an "at risk" designation, dependent on the timing of Black Hollow Phase 2 solar project and favorable weather conditions. The 2030 target of 68% emissions reduction is marked "at risk" with no feasible methods currently identified to close a 12% gap.

Understanding the Measurement Framework

Fort Collins measures renewable electricity progress differently than its wholesale power supplier. The city adopted a consumption-based methodology in Resolution 2018-094 on October 2, 2018, meaning it tracks whether total renewable generation—both utility-scale and local solar—matches total electricity consumed within city limits.

Platte River Power Authority uses a generation-based approach, calculating what percentage of its total electricity production comes from renewable sources. This methodological difference means the two entities track progress on separate metrics that cannot be directly compared.

"One can't simply say, to get to Platte River's goal, let's simply install more local solar," Thal explained. "The math doesn't work on the right side of this table."

Local distributed solar generation currently provides approximately 3.2% of Fort Collins' electricity consumption and is projected to reach 5% by 2030. Even maximizing local solar installations would not bridge the gap between Platte River's 88% forecast and the city's 100% consumption target.

Black Hollow Solar Project Timeline Critical

The Black Hollow Phase 2 solar project, which broke ground in July 2024, will add 257 megawatts of utility-scale solar capacity to Platte River's portfolio—approximately six times Fort Collins' current total distributed solar generation. The facility's expected 2026 completion date remains critical to meeting interim emissions goals.

Thal cautioned that achieving the 2026 target of 50% emissions reduction depends on two variables outside city control: whether Black Hollow comes online early in 2026 and whether weather patterns produce mild temperatures and abundant hydropower.

"There's a possibility that we could achieve that 2026 goal," Thal said. "It depends on timing of a big utility scale solar and the weather next year. That weather could fluctuate at 3 or 4%."

Weather and hydropower variability create annual fluctuations because Fort Collins receives a portion of its electricity from Western Area Power Administration hydroelectric facilities. Snowpack and runoff levels directly impact renewable energy availability year over year.

Supply Side and Demand Side Strategies

Thal emphasized that achieving renewable electricity goals requires both increasing renewable generation and reducing overall consumption through conservation and efficiency measures.

"We could add a number of renewable resources," Thal said. "It costs far more to produce more renewable electricity than it does to conserve through energy efficiency, conservation and other methods."

The city is developing building performance standards expected to take effect in 2025-2026, requiring large commercial and multifamily buildings to meet energy efficiency benchmarks. The standards aim to reduce electricity demand as a complement to expanding renewable supply.

Fort Collins also relies on funding from the 2050 climate tax approved by voters in November 2023 to support weatherization programs, electrification incentives and efficiency improvements across residential and commercial buildings.

Platte River's 88% Forecast Creates Gap

Platte River Power Authority supplies approximately 97-98% of Fort Collins' electricity under the current wholesale power agreement. The utility's 2020 Integrated Resource Plan established a target of 90% non-carbon electricity by 2030, but recent forecasts project 88% renewable generation by decade's end.

The gap between Platte River's 88% forecast and Fort Collins' 100% consumption goal represents the city's most significant challenge. Thal indicated the window for identifying feasible strategies to close that gap is narrowing.

"At this time there's no feasible methods to make up that 12% gap," Thal said regarding the 2030 target.

Platte River plans to retire its Rawhide Unit 1 coal plant by 2030, with most scenarios targeting 2029 closure. The 280-megawatt facility near Wellington represents a critical emissions source that must be replaced with renewable generation or offset through demand reduction.

Local Solar Generation Outpaces Comparable Cities

Despite falling short on overall renewable electricity targets, Fort Collins leads regional peers in distributed solar adoption. The city recorded solar generation equivalent to Los Angeles and Sacramento on a watts-per-capita basis in 2022, according to industry data Thal presented to council.

Fort Collins produces approximately three times the per-capita solar generation of Longmont, demonstrating significant progress in local renewable energy deployment even as overall renewable electricity percentages lag.

The city established a 5% local solar target as an operational goal rather than a binding requirement, recognizing that excessive investment in distributed generation could prove less cost-effective than utility-scale procurement while not materially advancing the consumption-based renewable electricity target.

Council Member Julie Pignataro sought clarification on measurement frameworks, asking whether Fort Collins' distribution-focused approach compared more directly to purchase power agreement entities like Holy Cross Energy rather than generation utilities like Platte River.

"Is that wrong?" Pignataro asked, attempting to understand measurement comparisons.

Thal noted that Holy Cross maintains both consumption-based and generation-based goals, complicating direct comparisons between municipal utilities and power purchase agreement models.

Financial and Technical Variables

Thal emphasized that revenue losses from Loveland's withdrawal from the regional Flex transit partnership and reduced FASTER state funding totaling approximately $950,000 annually have constrained Fort Collins' ability to expand programs supporting renewable electricity adoption.

Technology costs, federal and state incentives, and grid modernization investments all influence the city's capacity to accelerate renewable energy deployment. Favorable policy changes or cost reductions in battery storage could improve prospects for meeting 2030 targets.

The timing of renewable energy procurements depends partially on construction schedules spanning two to four years from request for proposals to operational power delivery, limiting the city's ability to respond quickly to emerging gaps.

For questions about Fort Collins' renewable electricity goals and progress, contact Fort Collins Utilities at 970-221-6700.